Gold School
How does the Fed affect gold?
The short answer
These are the usual (textbook) reactions. Gold does not always follow them. Updated 3 October 2026.
What the Fed does
The Federal Reserve is the US central bank. Its main job is to keep inflation near 2% and jobs strong. Its main tool is the interest rate.
Because gold pays no interest, anything that changes what the Fed is likely to do can move gold. Why rates matter for gold.
Dovish and hawkish
- Dovish means softer: more worried about jobs, more open to cutting rates. Usually BULLISH for gold
- Hawkish means tougher: more worried about inflation, ready to keep rates high or raise them. Usually BEARISH for gold
What to watch (UK time)
| Event | UK time | How often |
|---|---|---|
| Fed rate decision and statement | 19:00 | 8 meetings a year |
| Fed chair press conference | 19:30 | After each decision |
| Rate forecasts ("dot plot") | 19:00 | 4 times a year: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec |
| Meeting minutes | 19:00 | 3 weeks after each meeting |
Times are 2pm New York time and shift by an hour for a couple of weeks a year when the UK and US clocks change on different dates.
The tone matters as much as the decision
Often the rate decision itself is expected. Gold then reacts to the words: hints about the next move, and how worried the Fed sounds about inflation.
Every upcoming date in UK time: Fed meeting dates. Or add every big release to your phone calendar.
Get the verdict when the news lands
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Keep learning
Why does gold fall when interest rates rise?
Why gold and interest rates usually move in opposite directions.
Does CPI affect gold?
US inflation data, and why cooler numbers usually help gold.
How does the US jobs report (NFP) affect gold?
The monthly US jobs report, with a real example from 2 Oct 2026.