Gold School
How does the US jobs report (NFP) affect gold?
The short answer
These are the usual (textbook) reactions. Gold does not always follow them. Updated 3 October 2026.
What NFP is
NFP stands for non-farm payrolls. It is the number of jobs the US economy added last month, leaving out farm workers. It comes in the monthly US jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The same report also gives the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings (pay growth). It also revises the two previous months, which can matter as much as the new number.
How gold usually reacts
- Fewer jobs than expected: a weaker economy, so rate hikes look less likely. BULLISH for gold
- More jobs than expected: a strong economy, so rates stay high for longer. BEARISH for gold
- Higher unemployment or slower pay growth usually point the same way as fewer jobs.
Real example: Friday 2 October 2026
| Figure | Actual | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| New jobs (NFP) | 29K | 89K to 90K |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| Pay growth (month) | 0.1% | 0.3% |
Every part was weaker than expected. July and August were also cut by 60K in total. BULLISH for gold
Gold rose from about $4,185 to about $4,222 in the five minutes after the report. Later that day it gave the gain back and closed lower, as US bond rates rose. That is a good lesson: the textbook reaction often shows up first, and other forces can take over later.
When it lands (UK time)
| Release | UK time | How often |
|---|---|---|
| US jobs report (NFP) | 13:30 | Monthly, usually the first Friday |
12:30 UK for a couple of weeks in spring and autumn, when the UK and US clocks change on different dates.
Every upcoming date in UK time: NFP dates. Or add every big release to your phone calendar.
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Keep learning
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Why does gold sometimes go the wrong way after news?
Priced in, other news, and big buyers. Why the textbook is not a rule.