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Every recent US inflation report, jobs report and Fed decision, and what gold actually did. Straight after the news, and by the end of the day.
Released at 8:30am New York. Cooler than expected usually helps gold.
Inflation 3.4% vs 3.4% expected
Why: Headline matched forecasts but core month-on-month was a touch hot, keeping a Fed hike priced; gold still recovered from the prior day's sell-off as oil and the dollar eased. [1] [2]
Inflation 3.4% vs 3.4% expected
Why: Data matched forecasts and showed inflation was not speeding up again, so Fed hike odds fell (about 40% from 48%) and gold rose. [1] [2]
Inflation 3.5% vs 3.8% expected
Why: A much cooler print cut Fed rate-hike odds and pulled yields and the dollar lower, lifting gold. [1] [2]
Inflation 4.2% vs 4.2% expected
Why: Inflation of 4.2% met forecasts but left the Fed no room to cut, so rising yields and rate-hike fears drove a heavy sell-off. [1] [2]
Inflation 3.8% vs 3.7% expected
Why: Hotter inflation pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which outweighed gold's appeal as an inflation hedge. [1] [2]
Inflation 3.3% vs 3.4% expected
Why: Inflation jumped on war-driven energy prices but came in a bit below forecast with core contained, so gold rose briefly before giving it back. [1] [2]
Inflation 2.4% vs 2.4% expected
Why: The data matched forecasts but was collected before the Iran war oil shock, so markets ignored it and a firmer dollar weighed on gold. [1] [2]
Inflation 2.4% vs 2.5% expected
Why: Cooler-than-expected headline inflation raised bets on more Fed cuts, and gold bounced back above $5,000 after the previous day's sell-off. [1] [2]
Inflation 2.7% vs 2.7% expected
Why: Headline matched forecasts and core was cooler, which firmed Fed rate-cut bets, but gold was already near a record and drifted sideways. [1] [2]
Released at 8:30am New York. Weaker than expected usually helps gold.
29K new jobs vs 90K expected
Why: Weak jobs data first lifted gold, but high Treasury yields, a firm dollar and oil risk erased the gain and left it lower on the day. [1] [2]
162K new jobs vs 53K expected
Why: A much stronger jobs report raised Fed rate-hike odds and yields, so gold dropped sharply before recovering part of the loss. [1] [2]
−23K new jobs vs 85K expected
Why: A surprise drop in jobs cut Fed rate-hike bets and weakened the dollar, giving gold its best week since January. [1] [2]
57K new jobs vs 115K expected
Why: A weak jobs number pushed back expected Fed rate hikes, so gold rose more than 2%. [1] [2]
172K new jobs vs 85K expected
Why: A blowout jobs report lifted the dollar, Treasury yields and Fed rate-hike bets, causing gold's biggest one-day drop since March. [1] [2]
115K new jobs vs 62K expected
Why: Despite a strong jobs beat, the dollar weakened and slower wage growth helped gold keep its gains. [1] [2]
178K new jobs vs 59K expected
Why: Gold could not react because the market was shut for Easter; Kitco expected the strong report to weigh on prices at the Sunday-evening reopen. [1] [2]
−92K new jobs vs 59K expected
Why: An unexpected fall in jobs revived Fed rate-cut hopes and lifted gold, though a firm dollar capped the gain. [1] [2]
130K new jobs vs 70K expected
Why: A strong jobs beat briefly lifted the dollar and knocked gold down, but the dollar bounce faded and buyers pushed gold back up. [1] [2]
50K new jobs vs 60K expected
Why: A slight payrolls miss kept Fed rate-cut hopes alive, so gold edged higher toward a weekly gain of about 3.9%. [1] [2]
Announced at 2pm New York. Cuts usually help gold; rises usually hurt it.
Decision: hike 25bp to 3.75-4.00%
Why: The hike was priced in, but hawkish projections and Warsh's tone lifted yields and the dollar, erasing gold's earlier gains. [1] [2]
Decision: hold at 3.50-3.75%
Why: Markets had priced about a 30% chance of a hike, so a hold gave gold a relief bounce, capped by an oil spike and firm yields. [1] [2]
Decision: hold at 3.50-3.75%
Why: The hold was expected, but projections turned toward rate hikes, lifting short-term yields and the dollar. [1] [2]
Decision: hold at 3.50-3.75%
Why: The hold was expected, but hawkish dissents lifted the dollar and yields while oil above $100 kept rate-cut hopes down. [1] [2]
Decision: hold at 3.50-3.75%
Why: Hot producer prices and oil above $100 fed 'higher for longer' fears; the expected hold changed little. [1] [2]
Decision: hold at 3.50-3.75%
Why: The hold was fully priced; gold kept rallying on a four-year-low dollar and worries about Fed independence rather than the decision itself. [1] [2]
Spot gold, US dollars per ounce. "That day" is the change from the previous close to a late-day price, as reported at the time; some rows use the latest price found that day. Gold often does not follow the textbook: why gold sometimes goes the wrong way. Past reactions do not tell you what gold will do next.
A cooler (lower) inflation number usually helps gold, because it makes interest-rate rises less likely. A hotter one usually hurts it. The table above shows what really happened each month, and gold often goes its own way.
Weaker jobs numbers usually help gold, stronger ones usually hurt it, for the same interest-rate reason. Big surprises move gold most.
Often because the news was already expected (priced in), or because something bigger, like bond rates or the dollar, pulled harder that day. Read more.
Big gold news, explained in plain English the moment it happens. Free.
