📊 Week of 28 Sep · gold down about $145
🪙 Gold this week: about $4,285 to $4,140
Oil fear and very high US bond rates beat a run of weak US data.
📰 The big moves
🔴 Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil jumped, so fears of another US rate rise grew.
🟢 US shoppers' mood (consumer confidence) fell to its lowest since 2014. Job openings also came in below forecast.
🟢 The Fed's (US central bank's) favourite inflation measure (PCE) came in cooler than expected.
🟢 The US jobs report showed just 29,000 new jobs in September.
🔴 US bond yields (the interest rate on US government bonds) hit their highest since 2002. Gold pays no interest, so that hurts it.
🧭 How gold reacted
Mon Trump rejects Iran offer, oil up 🔴 → gold down more than $135 (over 3%) on the day, textbook held
Tue US shoppers' mood 81.9 vs 89.2 expected 🔥🔥 🟢 → gold pushed to new highs for the day, about $4,171, textbook held
Wed US inflation (PCE) 3.4% vs 3.7% expected 🔥🔥🔥 🟢 → gold touched about $4,219, textbook held, then fell below Tuesday's close as bond yields rose
Thu US factory survey (ISM, above 50 = growing) 54.5 vs 55.0 expected, but factory prices jumped 🔥🔥 ⚪ → gold barely moved
Fri US jobs report (NFP) 29,000 vs about 85,000-90,000 expected 🔥🔥🔥 🟢 → gold about +$40, textbook held, then faded
💡 Lesson of the week
Weak US data cut the odds of a Fed rate rise in October from about 70% to about 20%. That is good news for gold, and gold did jump. But Wednesday's and Friday's jumps faded, as bond yields stayed near 24-year highs and the dollar stayed strong. When safe bonds pay over 5%, gold struggles to hold its gains.