Preview · written 11 October 2026
US inflation (CPI) on 14 October: what to watch for gold
The US inflation report lands on Wednesday at 13:30 UK. Here's what's expected, why it matters more than usual, and how gold usually reacts.
The short answer
What is CPI?
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is a monthly price check on everyday things in the US: food, rent, fuel, clothes and more. It shows how fast prices are rising, which is inflation. Full guide: how CPI moves gold.
What's expected on Wednesday
| August (last) | September (expected) | |
|---|---|---|
| Main number (yearly) | 3.4% | About 3.7% |
| Core (without food and fuel) | 2.4% | About 2.4% to 2.5% |
The gap between the two tells the story: fuel is doing most of the pushing. Oil has been near $100 a barrel since the Iran war began. Why oil matters for gold.
Why it matters more than usual
The Federal Reserve (the Fed, the US central bank) raised rates to 3.75% to 4% on 16 September. In early October, markets put about a 20% chance on another rise at the next meeting on 28 October, and roughly 70% to 80% on a rise by December (CME FedWatch, as reported by the previews below).
A hot number could make an October rise look more likely. A cool one could push it further away.
It's the surprise that counts
- About 3.7%, as expected: already priced in. Gold may barely react.
- Higher: a hot surprise. Usually bad for gold.
- Lower: a cool surprise. Usually good for gold.
Last time, on 11 September, CPI matched the forecast at 3.4% and gold still rose about 1.5% straight after, because oil and the dollar eased the same day. What gold did after every recent release.
Get an alert when it lands
Add our free gold news calendar and your phone alerts you 15 minutes before, and again at 13:30.
Questions people ask
When is the next US CPI report?
Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 8:30am New York time, which is 13:30 UK time. It covers September.
What is expected?
About 3.7% a year for the main number, up from 3.4% in August. Without food and fuel (core), about 2.4% to 2.5%.
Is a hot CPI good or bad for gold?
Usually bad. Prices rising faster than forecast can push the Fed to raise rates, and gold pays no interest. A cooler number usually helps gold. Gold does not always react the same way.
What did gold do after the last CPI?
On 11 September CPI matched forecasts at 3.4%, yet gold rose about 1.5% straight after, as oil and the dollar eased the same day.
Sources
- Admiral Markets: US CPI September 2026 preview (8 Oct)
- Mitrade: US September CPI preview (10 Oct)
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: CPI release schedule
Forecasts and odds as published before the release, and they can change. Education only. Gold doesn't always react the same way. Not financial advice.
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