17:09 UK · Gold School
📚 Gold School · Inflation day (CPI): why hot inflation is usually bearish for gold
The US inflation report (CPI) shows how fast everyday prices are rising (shopping, rent, bills).
Next one: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 13:30 UK / 08:30 New York.
Inflation hotter than forecast? The US central bank (the Fed) is less likely to cut interest rates, and more likely to raise them.
That usually lifts the dollar and bond yields (the interest on US government bonds).
Gold pays no interest, so it looks less attractive.
🔴 Bearish for gold: inflation hotter than forecast.
🟢 Bullish for gold: inflation cooler than forecast.
Real example: 13 Feb 2024. US prices were 3.1% higher than a year before, vs 2.9% expected.
The dollar jumped to a 3-month high.
Gold dropped below $2,000 for the first time in two months and ended the day about 1.3% lower.
💡 Remember: on inflation day, gold reacts to the gap between the forecast and the real number.
17:55 UK · Week ahead
📅 Week ahead Mon 12 Oct to Fri 16 Oct · biggest day: Wed 14 Oct US inflation report (CPI) 🔥🔥🔥
🪙 Gold now: about $4,195 (Fri 9 Oct close)
🧭 Big theme: Brent oil above $100 is pushing US prices up.
US 10-year bond rates (yields) hit their highest since 2002 on Wed 7 Oct.
The Fed is weighing another rate rise.
Times: UK / New York
🔥 Biggest days
Wed 14 Oct 13:30 / 08:30 US inflation (CPI) 🔥🔥🔥
How fast shop prices rose in September
Expected 3.6% a year (prev 3.4%)
Without food and energy (core): expected 2.5% (prev 2.4%)
Petrol is behind the expected jump
🟢 if cooler | 🔴 if hotter
🎲 Market odds for the monthly figure (forecast +0.6%): 55% below | 30% on it | 15% above
Fri 16 Oct 04:30 / Thu 15 Oct 23:30 Fed Chair Warsh speaks 🔥🔥🔥
A Q&A with the head of the IMF (global lending body) in Bangkok
🟢 if softer on rates | 🔴 if tougher on rates
📋 Also watch
Mon 12 Oct: US bond market shut (Columbus Day holiday)
Wed 14 Oct 19:00 / 14:00 Fed report on the US economy (Beige Book) 🔥🔥
Thu 15 Oct 13:30 / 08:30 US shop spending (retail sales), exp +0.3% 🔥🔥
Thu 15 Oct 13:30 / 08:30 factory-gate prices (PPI), exp +0.5% (prev +0.4%) 🔥🔥
Thu 15 Oct 13:30 / 08:30 new US jobless claims, exp 195K (prev 197K) 🔥🔥
📖 What to know
Petrol should push the main inflation number up, so the core figure is the one to watch.
If core stays calm, the chance of a rate rise can fade, which is usually good for gold. If it runs hot, the opposite.
