📊 Week of Mon 5 Oct · gold up about $53
🪙 Gold this week: about $4,142 to $4,195
A strong dollar and bond yields (the interest on US government bonds) at their highest in over 20 years pushed gold to a two-month low on Wednesday. Yields eased from that peak and gold bounced back.
📰 The big moves
🔴 Bearish: the US 10-year bond yield hit about 5.36% on Wednesday. Gold pays no interest, so it slid below $4,100.
🔴 Bearish: the Fed's meeting notes (minutes) said most officials expect another rate rise by year-end.
🟢 Bullish: strong demand at a sale of 30-year US bonds on Thursday helped pull yields back. Gold held firmer late in the day.
🟢 Bullish: US shopper mood (Michigan survey) fell to 46.3, the second-lowest on record (only May was lower).
⚪ Neutral: Trump called talks with Iran "productive". Oil dipped at first, then climbed back.
🧭 How gold reacted
🔥 = how big the news was
Times: UK / New York
Mon 15:00 / 10:00 US services survey (ISM, above 50 = growing) 54.9 vs about 55 🔥🔥 ⚪ neutral (prices paid hit the highest since July 2022) → gold dipped to about $4,141, flat on the day
Wed 19:00 / 14:00 Fed meeting notes (minutes) 🔥🔥 🔴 bearish → gold barely moved, the big drop came earlier
Thu 13:30 / 08:30 New claims for unemployment benefit 197k vs 200k 🔥🔥 🔴 bearish → gold barely moved, about $4,122
Fri 15:00 / 10:00 US shopper mood (Michigan) 46.3 vs 47.6 🔥🔥 🟢 bullish, but year-ahead price worries rose to 4.7% → gold held near the day's high, about $4,188. Most of Friday's rise came earlier.
💡 Lesson of the week
Gold hit its low on Wednesday before the Fed notes came out, not after. Markets already expected a tough tone, so the notes barely moved it. This week bond yields and the dollar, not the data, set gold's direction.