☀️ Wed 14 Oct · 🔴 BEARISH for gold
Gold about $4,165 (up about $6 since 22:00 UK Tue 13 Oct)
🚨 Big day: US inflation (CPI) at 13:30 UK / 08:30 New York. Big releases like this often move gold.
📰 What happened
🔴 US bond yields (what the US pays to borrow) rose on Tue 13 Oct, 10-year about 5.2%. Gold slipped to about $4,150. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields weigh on it.
🔴 The Fed (US central bank) sounded tough. Boston Fed's Collins said US rates should rise "a bit further" before year-end.
🔴 Oil fear: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, Iranian attacks on ships near Hormuz. Brent oil about $106. That can mean more inflation and higher US rates, which tends to weigh on gold.
📅 Next 24 hours (times UK / New York)
10:40 / 05:40 Fed Governor Bowman speaks (votes on US rates) 🔥🔥 MEDIUM
Topic: bank rules. Again 03:55 UK Thu / 22:55 New York Wed
🟢 if softer on rates | 🔴 if tougher
13:30 / 08:30 US inflation (CPI, how fast everyday prices rise) 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
Expected 3.6% a year (prev 3.4%), 0.6% on the month. Core (no food or energy) 2.4% to 2.5% (prev 2.4%)
🟢 if cooler | 🔴 if hotter
🎲 Market odds: 40% cooler | 50% as expected | 15% hotter
18:30 / 13:30 Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks 🔥🔥 MEDIUM
On Tue 13 Oct he said lasting inflation makes action sensible
🟢 if softer on rates | 🔴 if tougher
📖 Gold lesson
Fuel prices jump around, so the Fed watches core inflation closely. Fuel is expected to lift the headline this month, so a core surprise may matter more for gold.