06:05 UK · Morning brief
☀️ Thu 29 Oct · ⚪ MIXED for gold
Gold about $4,030 to $4,040 (little changed since the last brief)
🚨 Big day: US inflation (PCE) and US growth (GDP) at 12:30 UK / 8:30 New York. Big releases like this often move gold.
📰 What happened
🔴 Overnight: gold slid from about $4,067 to about $4,030. A December Fed rate rise now looks more likely.
🔴 The Fed kept rates the same at 3.75% to 4.00%. (The Fed sets a range, not one number.) 🔥🔥🔥
Why it matters
🔴 2 of the 12 Fed voters wanted a rise. Higher rates make gold, which pays no interest, less attractive.
🔴 The interest rate on 10-year US government bonds (yields) ended just above 5%.
Oil and fear
🔴 A claimed attack on a Saudi refinery by Yemen's Houthis pushed Brent oil above $115. Dearer oil keeps rates high. 🔥🔥🔥
🟢 Oil eased overnight on reports of US-Iran peace efforts. Less inflation fear, a smaller effect.
📅 Next 24 hours
Times: UK / New York
12:30 / 8:30 US inflation, core PCE (the Fed's favourite measure, without food and fuel) 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
Expected 3.1% over a year (prev 3.0%)
🟢 if cooler | 🔴 if hotter
12:30 / 8:30 US growth (GDP), first look at July to September 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
Expected 3.2% yearly pace (prev 2.2%)
🟢 if weaker | 🔴 if stronger
13:15 / 9:15 Euro area interest rates (ECB) 🔥🔥 MEDIUM
Expected kept the same at 2.50%
🟢 if tougher | 🔴 if softer (via the dollar)
Fri about 03:00 / Thu about 23:00 Japan interest rates (BoJ), time not fixed 🔥🔥 MEDIUM
Expected kept the same at 1.25%
🟢 if tougher | 🔴 if softer (via the dollar)
📖 Gold lesson
When Fed voters start asking for higher rates, gold often feels it before any rise happens.
Markets move on what they expect next, not just on the decision itself.
08:48 UK · News landed
⚡ 🔴 BEARISH for gold · 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
Iran's Revolutionary Guards say three oil tankers hit mines and caught fire near Strait of Hormuz
Why: Oil supply threat raises inflation fear keeping US rates high while Fed fights inflation.
Gold $4,021.60
🕒 Thu 29 Oct · news 08:47 UK
12:20 UK · Update
⏰ BIG NEWS at 12:30 UK · 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
🇺🇸 The Fed's favourite inflation measure (core PCE) · 12:30 UK
Expected 0.3% (last 0.2%)
🟢 Bullish for gold if LOWER
🔴 Bearish for gold if HIGHER
Gold now $4,028.43
12:54 UK · News landed
⚡ 🔴 BEARISH for gold · 🇺🇸 US inflation (PCE) + growth (GDP) · 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
🕒 Thu 29 Oct · 12:30 UK / 8:30am New York
What happened
Core PCE (the Fed's favourite inflation measure, without food and fuel): 3.1% vs 3.1% expected (prev 3.0%)
GDP (how fast the US economy grew, July to September, yearly pace): 3.4% vs 3.2% expected (prev 2.2%)
Surprise: Inflation came in exactly as expected. Growth was stronger than forecast.
Textbook
🔴 Bearish. Inflation matched forecasts, so it added little new.
A stronger economy gives the Fed less reason to cut rates, and higher rates usually weigh on gold.
What gold did
About $4,025 by 12:47 UK
Gold was already lower before the release, down about 1% on the day.
What's next
US jobs report, Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UK / 8:30am New York
13:56 UK · News landed
⚡ 🔴 BEARISH for gold · 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
US economy grew 3.4% in third quarter while inflation pressures continue
Why: Stronger US growth with persistent inflation raises rate-hike odds and strengthens the dollar.
Gold $4,022.40
🕒 Thu 29 Oct · news 13:53 UK
13:56 UK · Update
📡 DEVELOPING · 🔴 BEARISH for gold
US growth faster than expected: 3 headlines in 90 min
🕒 Thu 29 Oct, 13:56 UK
• US economy grew 3.4% last quarter, faster than the 3.2% forecast and 2.2% before
• White House adviser Hassett says US growth is heading toward 4%
• US economy grew 3.4% in third quarter as inflation pressure continues
💡 What it means: The US economy grew 3.4% last quarter, beating forecasts, which keeps pressure on the Fed to hold rates higher for longer.
🔴 3 of 3 headlines · Gold $4,022.40
13:58 UK · News landed
⚡ ⚪ NEUTRAL for gold · 🇪🇺 Euro-area interest rates (ECB) · 🔥🔥 MEDIUM
🕒 Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 UK / 9:15 New York
What happened
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates the same.
Its deposit rate (what banks earn at the ECB) stays at 2.50%, as expected.
It warned that rising energy prices raise inflation risks.
Also on 29 Oct
• Before the decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde said she will leave on 7 Feb 2027
• The euro was about $1.11, its lowest since May 2025
• 12:30 UK / 8:30 New York: fewer new US unemployment claims than expected
• Jobless claims: 194,000 vs 199,000 expected. Stronger jobs, bearish
Gold
About $4,023 by 13:31 UK / 9:31 New York.
By 12:47 UK, before the decision, it was already down about 1% on the day.
Why it matters
An inflation warning usually lifts the euro and weakens the dollar.
But the euro was still lower on the day, after news that Lagarde is leaving.
Via the dollar, the effect on gold is small and mixed.
17:44 UK · Deep dive
🧠 Deep dive · Why do Fed rate-rise bets pull gold down? · Thu 29 Oct
What happened
Gold fell about 1% on Thu 29 Oct.
Most of the drop came before the US data at 12:30 UK / 8:30 New York.
At 13:07 UK / 9:07 New York it was near $4,022.
The news
• Wed 28 Oct: the Fed kept rates the same at 3.75% to 4.00%. (The Fed sets a range, not one number.)
• 2 of the 12 voters wanted a rise straight away
• US growth (GDP) for July to September: a 3.4% yearly pace, vs 3.2% expected
• The Fed's favourite inflation measure (core PCE): 3.1%, well above the 2% goal
How it works
A rate rise makes savings and US government debt pay more.
Gold pays no interest, so holding it costs more by comparison.
So when bets on a rise grow, gold often slips.
Strong growth and sticky inflation feed those bets.
What changed
After the Fed meeting, markets put the odds of a December rise above 80%.
The new data gave no reason to doubt that.
Earlier we flagged tankers hit by mines near Hormuz.
Gold had already fallen before that news. The main driver was rate-rise bets.
Remember
This does not happen every day.
If inflation were cooling, strong growth would worry the Fed much less.
📖 In one line
When markets expect a rate rise, good news for the US economy can be bad news for gold.
Coming up
• Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UK / 8:30 New York: US jobs report (NFP)
• Wed 9 Dec, 19:00 UK / 2:00pm New York: the Fed's next rate decision
19:15 UK · News landed
⚡ 🔴 BEARISH for gold · 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
A top US admiral briefed Trump on military options against Iran, the Wall Street Journal reports
Why: Military options against Iran raise oil supply fears in the Gulf. That can keep US interest rates high, which is bad for gold.
Gold $4,011.20
🕒 Thu 29 Oct · news 19:14 UK
19:15 UK · Update
📡 DEVELOPING · 🔴 BEARISH for gold
US attack plans for Iran: 3 headlines in 90 min
🕒 Thu 29 Oct, 19:15 UK
• Trump says again that Iran will be over very soon
• US plans to strike Iran after next week's elections, officials tell Newsmax
• Top Admiral briefs Trump on Iran attack options, WSJ reports
💡 What it means: News of US military plans against Iran can push oil prices up. That keeps US rates high, which is bad for gold.
🔴 2 of 3 headlines · Gold $4,011.20
20:52 UK · News landed
⚡ 🔴 BEARISH for gold · 🔥🔥🔥 HIGH
US economy grew fastest in a year last quarter and September inflation jumped 0.5 percent, most in six months
Why: Strong growth and rising inflation make US rate cuts less likely. That is bad for gold.
Gold $4,020.40
🕒 Thu 29 Oct · news 20:51 UK
21:12 UK · Gold today
🌙 Gold closed · Thu 29 Oct · $4,025, down 1.0%
Change on the day: down $42
Gold fell overnight and stayed down after US data.
Times: UK / New York
Textbook
🔴 BEARISH for gold.
Strong growth and oil fears can keep inflation high.
That gives the Fed more reason to raise rates, which is bad for gold.
What moved it
• By 08:48 / 4:48am: Iran said three tankers hit mines near Hormuz
• 12:30 / 8:30am: US growth (GDP) beat forecasts. Inflation (core PCE) as expected
🔥🔥 Fri 30 Oct
• About 03:00 / 11:00pm Thu: Bank of Japan decision
• 12:30 / 8:30am: US wage costs (ECI)
