Gold news by day
The verdicts are the textbook reading of the news, not a forecast. Closing prices are spot gold at about 5pm New York time, from our price feed, and may differ slightly from other sources.
Trump is sending a third aircraft carrier toward Iran, the Daily Mail reports
Why: A third carrier deployment escalates threats to Iran and Gulf oil routes. That raises oil-supply fear and inflation pressure, keeping US rates high, which is bad for gold.
Gold $3,876.40 (Friday's close)
Markets closed, reopen Sun 23:00 UK
🕒 Sun 01 Nov · news 23:59 UK
Iran says it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until its demands are met
Why: Keeping the strait shut means oil supplies stay tight and prices stay high. That keeps US interest rates high, which is bad for gold.
Gold $3,876.40 (Friday's close)
Markets closed, reopen Sun 23:00 UK
🕒 Sun 01 Nov · news 01:41 UK
Trump says US still has to take care of one or two sites in Iran but can do that in ten minutes
Why: A strike on Iranian sites can disrupt oil supply from the Gulf. That keeps US interest rates high, which is bad for gold.
Gold $3,876.40 (Friday's close)
Markets closed, reopen Sun 23:00 UK
🕒 Sun 01 Nov · news 06:23 UK
Iran offers plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours as Trump says talks moving forward
Why: Reopening the Strait eases oil supply fear and can push oil prices down. That makes US rate rises less likely, which helps gold.
Gold $3,876.40 (Friday's close)
Markets closed, reopen Sun 23:00 UK
🕒 Sun 01 Nov · news 07:18 UK
What it is
The US jobs report (NFP) counts new US jobs added last month.
Next one: Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UK / 8:30 New York.
Textbook
🔴 Bearish for gold: more jobs than expected. That gives the Fed (the US central bank) more reason to raise interest rates.
🟢 Bullish for gold: fewer jobs than expected. Less reason for the Fed to raise.
Gold pays no interest, so higher rates make it less attractive.
Real example
Fri 2 Oct 2026: the US added just 29,000 jobs.
About 85,000 to 90,000 were expected.
Gold jumped about 1%, past $4,200.
It then lost those gains and ended the day about 0.9% lower, near $4,140.
Why it faded
Markets still expected a US rate rise in December.
💡 Remember
The surprise matters more than the number. And gold's first move doesn't always last.
Gold reopens at 23:00 UK on Sun 1 Nov after a weekend of Iran news. Then comes the US midterm vote.
What's at stake
All 435 seats in the House, and 35 of 100 in the Senate.
Republicans control both now.
Democrats need 4 more Senate seats to take it.
What markets expect
Prediction markets give Democrats about a 91% chance of winning the House, and Republicans about 9% (Kalshi, 29 Oct).
Most of that is already expected. A surprise is what moves markets.
Why it can matter for gold
🔴 A surprise Republican sweep could mean more spending and higher US interest rates. That is usually bad for gold.
🟢 Some analysts say a Democratic Congress could make the Iran war harder to keep going. Less oil fear usually helps gold.
When results come
First polls close at 23:00 UK / 6pm New York on Tue 3 Nov.
The last close at 06:00 UK on Wed 4 Nov.
So results come through overnight, UK time.
Also this week
Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 UK: Bank of England decision
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UK / 8:30am New York: US jobs report
Where gold is
🪙 Gold now: about $3,875, its Friday close.
It fell about 7% in October.
Big theme
Brent oil briefly hit $118 on Friday, its highest since April.
Tankers are being hit in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route.
Dearer oil can keep inflation high. That gives the Fed more reason to raise rates, which is bad for gold.
Two Fed officials already voted to raise rates on Wed 28 Oct.
🔥 Biggest days
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UK / 8:30am New York: US jobs report (NFP) 🔥🔥🔥
New jobs added in October. Expected about 55,000 (last time 29,000).
🟢 if weaker: less reason to raise rates, good for gold
🔴 if stronger: more reason to raise rates, bad for gold
US votes
Tue 3 Nov: the US midterm elections decide who controls Congress.
First results come in overnight, UK time. Close races can take days.
A surprise can move the dollar. A weaker dollar usually helps gold. A stronger one hurts it.
📋 Also watch
Times: UK / New York. Surveys: above 50 = growing.
• Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 / 10:00: US factory survey (ISM) 🔥🔥
• Wed 4 Nov, 15:00 / 10:00: US services survey (ISM) 🔥🔥
• Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 / 7:00: Bank of England rate decision 🔥🔥
More on jobs
• Tue 3 Nov, 15:00 / 10:00: US job openings (JOLTS) 🔥🔥
• Wed 4 Nov, 13:15 / 8:15: private-company jobs estimate (ADP) 🔥🔥
📖 What to know
Strong jobs or dearer oil give the Fed more reason to raise rates on Wed 9 Dec. That is bad for gold.
A weak jobs report would do the opposite.
Friday's close: $3,876.40
Weekend guide: about $3,882 (+0.1% since Friday)
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